Can Tech Lead in the Second Half of 2025?

Tech has been the best-performing sector up to now in Q2. The Each day Breakdown explores whether or not that momentum can proceed into Q3 and This fall.

Friday’s TLDR

Tech has been a laggard
However was the highest sector in Q2
And now, it’s breaking out

What’s Taking place?

Tech shares have come roaring again to life, surging 21.5% within the second quarter. For buyers, the rally presents a much-needed break after a tough stretch: tech was the worst-performing sector from Q3 2024 by Q1 2025, falling roughly 7.5% over that interval.

Main the comeback are Microsoft and Nvidia, which now boast a mixed market cap of $7.5 trillion. They had been the one two members of the Magnificent 7 to notch new file highs through the quarter, reinforcing their dominance and reigniting enthusiasm throughout the broader tech panorama.

As we flip the web page to the second half of the yr, a key query arises: Can tech maintain this momentum? 

The sector carries the strongest anticipated earnings development for 2025, at round 21%, and holds the second-highest development forecast for 2026. That development outlook, mixed with renewed investor urge for food, may assist lengthen the rally — but it surely’s removed from assured.

AI Is Serving to Gasoline the Rally

The continued AI increase and semiconductor power proceed to drive a lot of tech’s narrative. Progress shares have been energized by AI developments, whereas cybersecurity names have additionally maintained sturdy uptrends. On the identical time, mega-cap tech firms are ramping up spending to construct the subsequent wave of AI infrastructure, additional validating the theme’s endurance.

In the meantime, semiconductor shares — a cornerstone of the AI commerce — are gaining steam. Nvidia and Broadcom have just lately reached new all-time highs, whereas Taiwan Semiconductor sits simply shy of its personal. Even beforehand beaten-down chipmakers like AMD, ASML, and Lam Analysis have proven significant indicators of life.

With tech accounting for over 30% of the S&P 500’s weighting, its course is crucial for the broader market. If the sector holds its footing, it may — on the very least — assist stabilize a inventory market nonetheless recovering from early-2025 volatility. At greatest, it may gasoline one other leg greater into year-end.

What Buyers Ought to Take into account

Tech’s prior underperformance helped ease valuation issues, even because the sector continued to ship regular development. The second quarter could have marked a turning level — or it could show to be a brief rebound. The chance? A return to lagging efficiency. The chance? That tech reclaims its management position and drives good points by the remainder of 2025.

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The Setup — Know-how ETF

Many buyers consider the QQQ ETF because the go-to know-how ETF. Whereas its prime holdings are made up of many widespread mega-cap tech names, its efficiency really tracks the Nasdaq 100, and it comprises shares like Costco, Starbucks, PepsiCo, and Reserving Holdings. 

In the meantime, the XLK is the know-how ETF, and it has clearly damaged out over the $235 to $240 resistance space. 

If buyers consider that know-how shares will proceed greater, this ETF (or the QQQ) may very well be one approach to method these shares. In both case, bulls will need to see tech shares maintain up above prior resistance. For the XLK, which means staying above the $235 to $240 zone. 

If it may possibly achieve this, maybe tech can preserve momentum by earnings season in late July and early August, and into the second half of the yr. Aggressive bulls would possibly begin accumulating the ETF now, whereas extra conservative bulls may look ahead to some type of pullback because the XLK is within the midst of its fifth straight weekly rally. 

Nonetheless, ought to tech shares lose momentum and the ETF breaks under this $235 to $240 zone, a bigger pullback may ensue. 

Choices

Shopping for calls or name spreads could also be one approach to speculate on extra upside — both amid the breakout or on a pullback. For name patrons, it could be advantageous to have enough time till the choice’s expiration. 

For people who aren’t feeling so bullish or who’re in search of a deeper pullback, places or put spreads may very well be one approach to take benefit.

To be taught extra about choices, contemplate visiting the eToro Academy.

Disclaimer:

Please word that because of market volatility, among the costs could have already been reached and situations performed out.