Dragonfly associate Haseeb Qureshi printed a category-by-category set of 2026 crypto predictions on X late Monday, arguing subsequent yr will “shock, each to the upside and to the draw back” even when “the pattern traces largely proceed.”
Bitcoin And Crypto Predictions For 2026
His headline macro name pairs a bullish bitcoin goal with a broader market rebound. “BTC is > $150K by year-end, however BTC dominance decreases in 2026,” Qureshi wrote. However he rejected the concept this routinely implies a blow-off alt cycle: “I don’t suppose will probably be wild sufficient to name it alt season. I feel alts will rebound nonetheless, simply to not loopy highs.”
Furthermore, Qureshi stated “the latest crop of fintech chains” won’t meet expectations on utilization and worth movement. “Regardless of the thrill across the latest crop of fintech chains, their metrics will underwhelm,” he wrote, pointing to “each day lively addresses, stablecoin flows, and RWAs.” He named Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain as doubtless laggards, whereas including that “Ethereum and Solana will overdeliver” and that “greatest builders will proceed to construct on impartial infra chains.”
On enterprise rails, he expects extra massive corporations to launch networks, skewing towards regulated incumbents. “Many extra Fortune 100s launch blockchains, though more and more concentrated amongst banking and fintech gamers,” he wrote, including: “Anticipate Avalanche to be a standout right here, alongside OP stack, Orbit, and ZK Stack.”
Qureshi additionally predicted a significant distribution transfer from shopper tech: “A giant tech firm (Google, Fb, Apple, and many others.) launches or acquires a crypto pockets in 2026.” And he supplied a contrarian timing name on Monad: “Monad will get written off as useless by CT, however metrics take off within the latter a part of the yr after analysts have already forgotten about it.”
On infrastructure, he stated DoubleZero adoption broadens: “Not less than 3 different chains hook up with DoubleZero to enhance their latency & throughput metrics. DoubleZero hits 80%+ stake on Solana.”
DeFi And Stablecoins
Qureshi forecass a extra concentrated perpetuals market construction. “Perp DEX market share consolidates to one thing like 3 large venues a la HBO (market share one thing like 40 / 30 / 20), adopted by an extended tail of smaller gamers who compete over the leftovers (final 10%),” he wrote.
He additionally expects product growth into equities. “Fairness perps take off, changing into >20% of whole DeFi perp quantity by EOY,” he wrote, alongside “important development in RFQ in comparison with CLOBs/AMMs, each on spot and perps.” He added a reputational tail danger: “Some DeFi-related insider buying and selling scandal hits mainstream media.”
Qureshi predicts a big growth in stablecoin provide whereas remaining overwhelmingly dollar-based. “Stablecoin provide expands by ~60% in 2026, and USD stays 99%+,” he wrote. He expects Tether to cede some share: “USDT dominance declines reasonably to ~55%.”
His strongest distribution declare centered on funds. “Stablecoin-backed playing cards develop 1,000% in 2026—insanely quick development,” Qureshi wrote. “Turns into the dominant manner that stablecoins land and develop in rising markets. Rain is the largest winner right here.”
Regulation And Prediction Markets
Qureshi predicted a US legislative deal subsequent yr, however with caveats on what the trade will get. “Readability Act will get signed into regulation in 2026 after some important markups and horse buying and selling,” he wrote. “A little bit of purchaser’s regret from crypto insiders.”
He additionally forecast political scrutiny if Democrats take the Home. “Dems win the home, and there’s a parade of hearings about something in crypto that touched TRUMP / WLFI,” Qureshi wrote.
“The underlying offers get subpoenaed.” In his state of affairs, Trump distances himself: “Trump insists he was by no means concerned and didn’t know something about it (and thus these offers should not protected by government privilege). Anybody who signed a silly deal will get publicly embarrassed.”
Qureshi expects prediction markets to develop quickly amid unresolved US authorized fights. “Prediction markets develop like loopy,” he wrote, citing “large authorized fights over sportsbetting regulation and federal pre-emption,” however including that “nothing main will get resolved subsequent yr, so established order continues by 2026.”
He argued Polymarket extends its cultural edge and distribution. “In the meantime Polymarket continues to steamroll the tradition,” Qureshi wrote. “Prediction markets are perceived as cool and good, and so are allowed to throw up odds in every single place.” He added that as home growth ramps, “it begins profitable increasingly home market share from Robinhood and sportsbooks.”
Most rivals, in his view, won’t matter. “The explosion of different platforms tacking on prediction markets largely flop,” he wrote. “90% of prediction market choices are completely ignored after which wind down by EOY.”
Qureshi stated “B2B partnership-driven distribution underperforms, direct-to-consumer outperforms,” with demand concentrated in “Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi frontends (plus conventional sportsbooks).”
AI And Privateness
Qureshi argued crypto’s sensible AI use stays slim. “Major AI use instances in crypto stay inside software program engineering and safety. Every thing else stays a prototype,” he wrote. “Pockets automation stays minimal.” He added: “AI brokers will nonetheless not be ‘paying one another’ or spending any significant cash in 2026.”
On spam and identification, he dismissed the near-term feasibility of a Worldcoin-style gate regardless of theoretical promise. “Worldcoin has verified 17 million identities—that’s 1 in 500 folks,” Qureshi wrote. “Being at 1/500 distribution is manner too small of an identification base for any service to transition to utilizing Worldcoin as an identification gate.” He prompt another path: “ZK Passports are in all probability extra doubtless within the short-medium time period, as a result of rather more of the world’s inhabitants as an NFC-enabled passport and might scan it with their telephones.”
Requested about privateness as a significant theme, Qureshi demurred. “I feel privateness goes to be a laggard,” he wrote. “Zcash will doubtless do effectively as a result of folks wish to consider, and there might be some adoption of personal transactions on Arc, Tempo, and many others.” Nonetheless, he returned to his overarching body: “I predict largely folks will hold doing issues in 2026 the way in which they’ve already been doing them.”
At press time, the full crypto market cap stood at $2.93 trillion.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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