Alisa Davidson
Printed: February 16, 2026 at 4:30 am Up to date: February 16, 2026 at 4:30 am
Edited and fact-checked:
February 16, 2026 at 4:30 am
In Temporary
Prediction markets’ quick growth has prompted A1 Analysis to undertaking a possible lengthy‑time period market dimension approaching $1 trillion, pushed by accelerating volumes, institutional adoption, and rising cross‑sector use instances.
A1 Analysis, a crypto‑native analytics agency, has printed a brand new report named “Prediction Markets: The Path to $1 Trillion and What Must Occur Subsequent” analyzing the quick growth of prediction markets, outlining the sector’s accelerating progress, the underlying infrastructure developments, and the challenges which will form its subsequent stage.
The research highlights that prediction markets have expanded from a valuation of $5 billion to $30 billion inside a single yr, marking one of the vital massive will increase recorded within the sector. In accordance with the report, the central query is not whether or not prediction markets will proceed to develop, however fairly the tempo at which the growth will happen and the potential higher restrict of the market.
The evaluation presents a projected path towards a $1 trillion market dimension throughout classes resembling sports activities, monetary hedging, and rising use instances, whereas additionally figuring out the infrastructure gaps that have to be addressed for the sector to succeed in that scale.
A1 Analysis highlights that complete buying and selling quantity in prediction markets rose from roughly $5 billion in 2024 to just about $28–30 billion in 2025, marking one of many quickest yr‑over‑yr will increase recorded within the trade. Early 2026 knowledge exhibits annualized volumes of $43 billion on Kalshi and $38 billion on Polymarket, with weekly exercise constantly ranging between $3.8 billion and $5.3 billion. Mixed platform valuations now stand at roughly $20 billion.
The research attributes the preliminary surge in 2024 to the US presidential election cycle, which introduced prediction markets into mainstream protection and demonstrated their potential to scale. Institutional participation strengthened the pattern, with Intercontinental Alternate investing $2 billion in Polymarket and main enterprise corporations resembling Sequoia Capital, a16z, and Paradigm increasing their publicity. Kalshi’s valuation climbed to $11 billion following a Collection E spherical led by Sequoia, whereas Robinhood built-in Kalshi markets into its platform. Coinbase additionally strengthened its place by buying Deribit for $2.9 billion and launching its personal US prediction market product.
Prediction Markets Seen On Path To $1T As New Buying and selling Fashions And Cross‑Sector Development Speed up
The research additional outlines a framework for the way the sector may ultimately attain $1 trillion in annual quantity. It argues that prediction markets are positioned to seize parts of a number of present industries fairly than dominate a single one. Sports activities betting, which generates greater than $125 billion in annual income globally, represents a big alternative, with prediction markets probably capturing 5–10% of digital quantity within the close to time period and as much as 20% over the following decade. Further progress is anticipated from monetary occasion‑pushed hedging and rising classes resembling climate, geopolitical threat, and expertise milestone markets.
The report notes that combining conservative seize charges throughout these verticals yields an estimated $85–90 billion in annual quantity, whereas average assumptions and cross‑class merchandise may push the determine towards $150–200 billion. The trillion‑greenback state of affairs, the researchers state, would require broader regulatory readability, institutional adoption, or the emergence of a brand new breakout class.
The research additionally identifies a number of improvements driving the following part of adoption. Kalshi’s introduction of mixture markets, which surpassed $100 million in quantity throughout their first week, displays rising demand for extra complicated buying and selling constructions.
In the meantime, new technical fashions goal to deal with the challenges of leverage in binary markets, together with steady settlement programs, quick‑period contracts, and consequence‑based mostly buying and selling primitives resembling Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4.
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About The Writer
Alisa, a devoted journalist on the MPost, focuses on cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a eager eye for rising traits and applied sciences, she delivers complete protection to tell and have interaction readers within the ever-evolving panorama of digital finance.
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Alisa, a devoted journalist on the MPost, focuses on cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a eager eye for rising traits and applied sciences, she delivers complete protection to tell and have interaction readers within the ever-evolving panorama of digital finance.
Extra articles
