When Should We Expect The Next ‘Greed’ Zone? Crypto Sentiment And Timing In 2026 |

Cryptocurrency markets began 2026 in a particularly pessimistic mode. The sentiment measures had been right down to the Excessive Worry class, which signifies market bottoms and never a manic run-up. The following query now for analysts, merchants, and long-term traders is when the subsequent zone of Greed might come, indicating a excessive bullishness and general confidence available in the market. To view this timeline, it’s vital to try not solely up-to-date sentiment knowledge but additionally the historical past of crypto cycles.

By February 18, 2026, the Crypto Worry & Greed Index, probably the most frequent indicators of the state of market psychology, is just at 9 out of 100, which is evidently within the realm of Excessive Worry. Such a low studying means that merchants and traders, in addition to even institutional merchants, are struggling widespread threat aversion and excessive warning. A rating beneath 20 has historically been related to protracted sell-offs, unstable buying and selling, and the wave of capitulation.

Previous to markets being in a Greed zone, which is usually characterised by a studying of above 60, numerous components about worth momentum, investor confidence, macroeconomic stability, and liquidity must change significantly. However, researching the proof of sentiment indices, technical indicators, and crypto-cycle patterns, students and market commentators are beginning to map when a motion to the greed sentiment might plausibly occur.

Present Crypto Sentiment: Below the Shadow of Excessive Worry

The temper picture shouldn’t be constructive for the time being. The Crypto Worry & Greed Index has recorded a number of occasions within the single-digit figures, even a file low of 5 in early February 2026, indicating the deepest reluctance available in the market.

To measure the general investor temper, the measurement consolidates statistics from numerous sources, resembling worth volatility, market momentum, social media exercise, quantity of commerce, the dominance of bitcoins available in the market, and Google search outcomes. A rating below 20 is normally an Excessive Worry, which signifies that a good portion of the market members are abandoning the danger and minimizing the publicity to digital belongings.

This worry has been the order of the day and has accompanied important worth contractions. An instance is the case of Bitcoin that retested the help on the ranges of $60,000–$70,000. 

This degree has been used as a psychological facet over the past a number of months. These prolonged durations of bearishness are normally indicators of both an extension of the damaging worth motion or a time throughout which the markets soak up weak holders after which main, sustained upturns.

It is because some commentators consider that lengthy durations of intense worry, particularly the place sentiment measures are beneath historic ranges, might result in a change of coronary heart available in the market psychology. In mid-2022, one other trough in sentiment led to one of many largest bull runs in late 2023 into 2024. 

Nonetheless, the interval between the best worry and the beginning of the grasping interval fluctuated considerably all through the cycles, indicating that though a foul temper is usually a precursor to a subsequent restoration, the method depends on quite a few macro market forces.

Historic Patterns and What They Recommend

The Worry and Greed Index has no predictive nature, and historical past portrays that durations of Excessive Worry final months earlier than they modify right into a impartial or grasping temper. For instance, within the 2021 2022 bear market, sentiment fell to worry deep for lengthy durations earlier than recovering with the revival of the value momentum in 2023. 

One other paper by students that research sentiment regimes in cryptocurrency markets factors to the acute sentiment, both worry or greed, as linked to elevated volatility and a possible transition part sooner or later when the promoting stress is drained, and the liquidity degree stabilizes. Though this type of analysis doesn’t establish any particular date, it means that the outcomes of such escalations to the acute worry territory after which to the territory of greed point out structural adjustments that transcend the short-term worth adjustments.

Additional, different technical evaluation frameworks point out that deep sentiment lows together with oversold indicators, like these of the Relative Power Index (RSI) measurements, might characterize a sustainable backside interval, out of which markets can develop an upward momentum. Such circumstances have been noticed in latest analysis and examine stories the place capitulation is seen to be nearly full earlier than reversal units in firstly of the 12 months 2026.

Nevertheless, when the sentiment is Greed, signified by an general studying higher than 60 on the Worry & Greed Index, extended rallies within the worth, participation of extra members (retail and institutional flows), and excessive ranges of social involvement can be related. All these are current, and sentiment remains to be in a really fearful land.

Macro Forces, Market Dynamics, and the Path to Greed

The interplay between the macroeconomic scenario on this planet and the crypto sentiment is among the main causes of the long-term worry scenario within the crypto markets. Within the late 2025 and early 2026, the digital belongings have been burdened by the rising rate of interest points, regulatory uncertainty, and traditional market volatility. 

Though the value of crossovers indicated its power in retaining its main help ranges, the temper was nonetheless pessimistic because of the rising inclination of traders to contemplate cryptocurrencies as dangerous belongings which might be extra inclined to macroeconomic adjustments.

However, traders following cycle bottoms and sentiment extremes now have potential indications of the place the market is more likely to go. The Matrixport sentiment index, which extends the Worry and Greed Index by capturing positioning and volatility, recorded readings of worry of below-zero, and this can be a rarity, one thing the market has often accompanied with a major motion of the key development. Such oversold sentiment is just like previous market bottoms earlier than the development switches.

Much like this, long-term sentiment readings have just lately reached their lowest degree in 4 years, which suggests that promoting stress amongst the big holders could possibly be fading. Analysts at Matrixport view the change of their inner sentiment indicators because the promoting stress beginning to ease, which is an indicator of the potential formation of a bottoming part. This doesn’t function a direct indicator of a Greed part, however it does verify the notion that market psychology is likely to be at a degree the place it’s now not in a state of pure panic, however quite stabilization, which can be adopted by a substantial quantity of rebound.

The opposite important potential set off of sentiment enchancment is renewed institutional adoption or optimistic regulatory adjustments. Earlier rallies, together with 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, had been boosted as institutional curiosity revived, coupled with higher authorized frameworks of crypto merchandise resembling Bitcoin ETFs. Ought to the identical occur in 2026, they might supply the lever that’s required to alter the notion to optimism and finally greed.

When Would possibly Greed Return?

Combining the prevailing sentiment knowledge and historic cycles, technical indicators, and macro forces, most market analysts opine that short-term aid rallies may be skilled, however it is not going to doubtless be in an prolonged state of greed earlier than extra structural enhancements may be realized.

Technical analysts consider that within the quick time period (1-3 months), there is a sign of aid rallies whereby Bitcoin and main altcoins might expertise reasonably bouncing jumps. 

This will elevate sentiment to a impartial degree, though to not the extent of attracting a full Greed studying. Such rebounds may be pushed by oversold conditions and panic exhaustion because the merchants make opportunistic positions.

Alisa, a devoted journalist on the MPost, makes a speciality of cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a eager eye for rising developments and applied sciences, she delivers complete protection to tell and have interaction readers within the ever-evolving panorama of digital finance.

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