Bitcoin Prediction Markets Show $84K Ceiling as Traders Stack Bets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad

Merchants Put $37M on Bitcoin All-Time Excessive Milestones as $150K Odds Sit at 1% on Polymarket

Probably the most lively single marketplace for the month is Polymarket‘s “What value will bitcoin hit in Might?” contract, which has recorded $21,471,305 in whole buying and selling quantity as of Might 19, 2026. The frontrunner final result reveals a 79% likelihood that bitcoin will commerce beneath $75,000 in some unspecified time in the future throughout the month, with shares priced at 79 cents every.

The “beneath $70,000” bracket carries a 23% likelihood, whereas the “above $85,000” goal sits at simply 10%. Extra excessive outcomes, together with a transfer above $90,000 or a drop beneath $60,000, every maintain 2% or decrease. Below that market’s guidelines, decision triggers instantly if any Binance BTC/ USDT 1-minute candle information a Excessive value at or above a given upside goal, or a Low at or beneath a draw back goal, at any level between 12:00 AM ET on Might 1 and 11:59 PM ET on Might 31.

Binance’s 1-minute chart is the one accepted knowledge supply. Costs from different exchanges or spot markets don’t rely. A separate Polymarket contract asks when bitcoin will attain $150,000. That market has drawn $18.4 million in whole quantity. Merchants give bitcoin solely a 7% probability of reaching $150,000 by December 31, 2026, with Sure shares buying and selling at 7 cents. The nearer deadline of June 30, 2026, attracts even much less confidence, sitting at a 1% likelihood, with Sure shares at 0.8 cents and No shares at 99.3 cents.

Decision guidelines comply with the identical Binance 1-minute candle customary, triggering a Sure final result if the BTC/ USDT Excessive reaches or exceeds $150,000 by the relevant deadline. Alongside this, Polymarket’s broader “ bitcoin all-time excessive 2026 milestone” market covers 34 particular person value targets spanning from important drops to historic highs, with a monitoring window operating by means of December 31, 2026. That contract has gathered $37,193,007 in whole buying and selling quantity, one of many largest Polymarket markets by way of quantity.

Brackets for bitcoin buying and selling above $80,000 and $90,000 each carry 100% implied likelihood, reflecting costs already achieved. On the far finish, the $1,000,000 goal holds a 1% likelihood. Every bracket resolves Sure independently if a Binance 1-minute candle Excessive meets or exceeds the goal at any level throughout the window.

On Myriad, merchants are betting on a less complicated binary: will bitcoin pump to $84,000 or dump to $55,000 first? The market has generated a extra modest $172,000 in buying and selling quantity. The chances favor the upside, with a 76.7% likelihood assigned to the $84,000 goal and a 23.3% likelihood assigned to the $55,000 goal. The market carries no expiration date and stays open till one stage is hit. Decision is predicated on the Shut value of every 1-minute candle on the Binance BTC/ USDT spot pair by way of Tradingview.

The Myriad platform commits to validating the ultimate final result inside 24 hours, offered Binance stays operational. Kalshi too is operating a number of bitcoin markets with completely different mechanics. Probably the most easy asks whether or not bitcoin will hit $75,000 earlier than it touches $100,000. That particular contract carries an 85% Sure likelihood, with Sure contracts buying and selling at 94 cents and No contracts at 14 cents. The 24-hour quantity stands at $44,288. The contract tracks the CF Bitcoin Actual-Time Index, utilizing a easy common over any 60-second interval.

If bitcoin drops to or beneath $75,000 first, the market resolves Sure. If it crosses $100,000 first, it resolves No. If neither stage is hit by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, it resolves No. Kalshi’s “When will bitcoin hit $150k?” collection (ticker: KXBTCMAX150) has drawn $33,893,312 in whole buying and selling quantity. Three timeframes are provided: earlier than August 2026 at a 1% likelihood (Sure prices 2 cents, No prices 99 cents), earlier than September 2026 at a 4% likelihood (Sure prices 4 cents, No prices 97 cents), and earlier than January 2027 at an 11% likelihood (Sure prices 11 cents, No prices 90 cents).

This contract makes use of CF Benchmarks knowledge, particularly the Bitcoin Actual-Time Index trimmed imply, which strips the highest and backside 20% of values inside every 60-second window to scale back the affect of momentary value spikes. Payouts are anticipated roughly one hour after market shut.

Kalshi additionally tracks the month-to-month excessive for bitcoin in Might 2026 just like Polymarket. That contract has recorded $1,150,013 in quantity as of Might 19, with the present forecast sitting close to $84,000. The chances for larger thresholds are slim: a 9% probability of crossing above $85,000 (Sure at 9 cents, No at 92 cents), a 4% probability above $87,500, and a 2% probability above $90,000. Contracts resolve Sure if the CF BRTI trimmed imply, calculated minute-by-minute, crosses the required threshold at any level by means of 11:59 PM ET on Might 31, 2026.

Lastly, Kalshi’s end-of-2026 bitcoin value market has gathered $23,739,420 in buying and selling quantity, with the present forecast at roughly $83,000, representing a roughly $12,000 transfer from present ranges. The $75,000-to-$79,999.99 bracket holds an 8.3% probability, the $80,000-to-$84,999.99 bracket sits at 7.6%, and the $70,000-to-$74,999.99 vary holds a 5.5% likelihood. The contract opened February 25, 2026, and closes at 12:00 AM EST on January 1, 2027, with payouts projected for 12:06 AM EST.

Settlement makes use of the common of 60 particular person value factors from the CF Benchmarks BRTI throughout the closing minute earlier than shut. Contracts are mutually unique, and customary insider buying and selling guidelines apply. Throughout all six prediction markets, the constant sign from merchants is that bitcoin faces a ceiling within the close to time period. The gang is skeptical of a transfer to $85,000 this month, and extra skeptical nonetheless of $150,000 earlier than 2027. The quantity behind that view is substantial.