Closing November: Bitcoin’s Worst Month Since 2018 — Or Just A Long Exhale?

by
Alisa Davidson

Printed: December 01, 2025 at 7:00 am Up to date: December 01, 2025 at 6:11 am

by Ana

Edited and fact-checked:
December 01, 2025 at 7:00 am

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that feeling if you have a look at a chart and suppose, “So we simply did all that for nothing?” That’s just about what Bitcoin gave us into the shut of November. Throughout November’s final week, worth stored knocking on the door of the low $90Ks, pretending it had the power to push — after which didn’t. We ended up sliding proper again towards $86K like the entire mid-month bounce was a half-hearted warm-up reasonably than an precise try at a reversal.

And actually, zooming out, that tracks. November actually was a grinder. An almost 20% drawdown for Bitcoin, the worst November since 2018, and a normal sense of “okay, perhaps we flew a bit too near the solar with these all-time highs.” Even the majors that normally take turns main — ETH, SOL, the standard suspects — roughly adopted BTC’s temper decrease. That’s the psychological bit that makes late-year buying and selling tough: as soon as sufficient of the market is underwater, folks cease shopping for dips and begin asking themselves whether or not they’re those offering liquidity to smarter sellers.

What really pushed all this? Effectively, decide your favorite macro plot twist. Charge-cut expectations had been principally on a trampoline all month. Early November, everybody was flirting with a December lower. Two weeks later, the chance cratered. Then immediately it bounced once more. These aren’t “macro alerts,” they’re temper swings with charts connected. Bitcoin thrives on clear narratives; this was the alternative. After which Japan, of all locations, jumps in with rising JGB yields that threatened to unwind the yen carry commerce  —  a really unsexy phrase that nonetheless interprets instantly into danger property (like BTC) taking a slap.

Flows didn’t assist. Spot ETFs bled for weeks, which all the time feels worse than it really is as a result of folks now deal with ETF move tables like gospel. IBIT noticed big redemptions, and BlackRock needed to principally say, “Settle down, that is regular.” And perhaps it’s. As a result of towards the very finish of the month, inflows lastly flickered again to life. 

It matched the broader vibe on-chain: adverse funding, washed-out open curiosity, and general sentiment caught in “excessive concern.” These are the setups the place analytically-minded merchants begin whispering, “That is in all probability the underside,” whereas emotionally-minded merchants suppose, “No, this should be the center of the drop.” Truthfully, each camps could have a degree.

In the meantime, the regulatory and structural stuff stored buzzing alongside within the background, virtually detached to cost. Texas actually purchased the dip via IBIT. Banks stored experimenting with stablecoins and tokenized funds. 

Tether obtained a downgrade from S&P and responded with theatrical outrage, which, once more, is changing into a style of its personal. All these micro-events don’t transfer worth individually, however they create the air you breathe whereas buying and selling.

Throughout majors, the shut was extra “ugh, we have to cool off” than “oh God, the ground simply fell out.” ETH had this very ETH factor occurring the place the basics (upgraded gasoline limits, Fusaka roadmap chatter) look nice on paper, whereas whales quietly sit on their palms and refuse to chase the market larger. 

Solana’s story was much more textbook: sturdy yr, an excessive amount of sizzling cash, ETF flows immediately reverse, treasury governance will get spicy, and growth — you get a drawdown with an identification disaster connected.

So the place does this depart Bitcoin heading into December? Effectively, the image is messier than the narratives make it. Quite a lot of indicators scream, “We’re oversold, this must be a backside.” ETF flows aren’t bleeding anymore. And traditionally, when Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is hugging zero, returns over the following a number of months skew strongly constructive.

However — and that is the annoying half all of us wish to skip — macro can nonetheless smack us round. The BOJ might shock once more. US labour knowledge might wobble. One other DAT or Technique headline might spook liquidity. If we get yet one more flush into the low $80Ks, I received’t faux to be shocked. However I additionally received’t faux it’s an indication of the cycle’s demise.

If something, November felt just like the market collectively exhaling after months of sprinting. Now we’re coming into December with worth on this irritating however finally wholesome vary  —  one thing like an $80K–$100K field  —  with leverage reset, sentiment thawing, and simply sufficient uncertainty to maintain everybody second-guessing themselves.

Alisa, a devoted journalist on the MPost, makes a speciality of cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a eager eye for rising tendencies and applied sciences, she delivers complete protection to tell and interact readers within the ever-evolving panorama of digital finance.

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