Timothy Peterson’s market simulation exhibits a 50% probability Bitcoin hits $140K in October.
Bitcoin lately hit $126K, needing a 14.7% rise to succeed in $140K.
Different analysts, nonetheless, be aware probably short-term pullbacks earlier than potential sustained good points.
Economist Timothy Peterson has projected that Bitcoin may attain $140,000 earlier than the top of October, citing data-driven simulations that point out a 50% likelihood of the world’s largest cryptocurrency closing the month above that mark.
The evaluation, grounded in additional than a decade of Bitcoin’s historic value behaviour, means that half of the cryptocurrency’s potential October good points might have already got occurred.
Knowledge-driven prediction, not hypothesis
Peterson’s projection, shared on X on October 7, 2025, was based mostly on “a whole bunch of simulations” utilizing Bitcoin’s day by day value information since 2015.
“There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” he wrote, including that there’s a 43% probability it may end beneath $136,000.
In line with Peterson, the forecast is solely statistical, not influenced by sentiment or subjective opinion.
He emphasised that the outcomes have been “based mostly purely on actual information, not human emotion or biased opinion,” designed to replicate Bitcoin’s historic volatility and cyclical rhythm.
On the time of his evaluation, Bitcoin was buying and selling at round $122,000, having cooled barely after setting a brand new all-time excessive of $126,200 earlier within the week.
Reaching $140,000 would require a roughly 14.7% achieve from present ranges, a transfer that aligns carefully with Bitcoin’s common October efficiency over the previous decade.
Historic information from CoinGlass exhibits that October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, usually delivering good points of about 20.75%.
October’s historic significance for Bitcoin
Peterson defined that “Bitcoin’s efficiency in October isn’t ‘arrange’ by September, it’s arrange all through your entire yr.”
Bitcoin’s efficiency in October is not “arrange” by September, its arrange all through your entire yr.
This chart plots Jan–Sept returns vs. October returns since 2015. The stronger Bitcoin performs via the primary 9 months, the stronger October tends to be. October has… pic.twitter.com/MLtqz5znkD
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 2, 2025
The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal power to broader monetary patterns, corresponding to the top of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the beginning of fiscal yr planning, and the method of year-end reporting home windows for funding funds.
These components, he steered, create beneficial circumstances for renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin and different danger property.
Whereas Peterson’s mannequin presents a probability-based outlook, he cautioned that markets don’t all the time conform completely to historic patterns.
Bitcoin’s previous behaviour has sometimes diverged from expectations even when information indicated excessive confidence ranges.
Nonetheless, he maintains that the mannequin gives a “clear, probability-based image” of the place Bitcoin’s worth is more than likely to maneuver within the quick time period.
Market sentiment leans bullish
Peterson’s forecast comes as market sentiment round Bitcoin stays typically optimistic.
Crypto analysts corresponding to Jelle and Matthew Hyland have echoed bullish outlooks in latest days, highlighting Bitcoin’s profitable retest of earlier highs and suggesting that momentum may push costs additional upward.
Earlier this week, Jelle posted, “It’s positively over for bears. Ship it larger,” whereas Hyland famous that “the strain is constructing.”
Nevertheless, not all voices available in the market are calling for a right away surge.
Analyst Ardi, recognized for his technical commentary, identified that Bitcoin typically experiences a short-term pullback of round 5% after hitting new all-time highs.
Such strikes, Ardi stated, are usually adopted by a interval of choppiness and consolidation—a sample that would play out once more earlier than any sustained rally.
$BTC likes to dump ~5% after it hits new ATHs, usually adopted by a interval of chop and consolidation.
Remainder of the market more than likely chops with it. pic.twitter.com/iZMqaUV6Qc
— Ardi (@AltcoinArdi) October 8, 2025
Technical outlook helps Bitcoin’s upward potential
Technical indicators additionally seem to help a bullish bias within the close to time period.
In line with market evaluation, Bitcoin’s key help degree stands at $120,899, with speedy resistance at $124,148 and a better goal of $126,021.
The cryptocurrency is at present buying and selling above all main exponential transferring averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), signalling sturdy upward momentum.
Projections are that Bitcoin may attain round $121,633 within the coming days, with longer-term forecasts setting bold value targets of $221,485 for 2025.
