How Do We Protect Bitcoin From Quantum Computers? Not With A Joke

Not too long ago, Challenge Eleven (a quantum computing analysis group) introduced a 1 bitcoin reward for the primary crew capable of full a problem to reveal breaking a ECC (elliptic curve cryptograph) key utilizing Shor’s algorithm on a quantum laptop. 

The deadline for this problem is April fifth, 2026, which means so as to qualify for the prize a crew should reveal breaking a key pair it should be carried out earlier than that deadline. 

That is frankly a very absurd and meaningless prize for plenty of causes, the primary of which is the deadline of just below a yr from immediately. Even extremely optimistic projections in regards to the progress of quantum computing put the timeline of virtually reaching such a objective at extra like 5-10 years. Anticipating a workable proof of idea demonstration that truly breaks a keypair in a single yr is fairly laughable at face worth, even should you do view quantum computing as a cloth risk within the brief time period. 

Subsequent is the issue of financial incentives. A single bitcoin is at the moment value roughly $80,000. That’s frankly not some huge cash within the grand scheme of issues. Particularly with regards to the appliance of a leading edge expertise like quantum computing that may carry out a whole class of computation exponentially quicker than a classical laptop. Think about how far more worthwhile issues could possibly be carried out with a working quantum laptop. 

You would snoop on web connections no matter TLS, breaking safe connections to banks, fairness brokerages, non-public company networks not utilizing post-quantum cryptography. You would break each non-public messenger utility on the planet, you would decrypt any PGP encrypted message despatched over e mail that you simply knew the general public key for. You would break your entire DNS system’s certificates authority hierarchy, permitting you to impersonate any server on this planet a consumer tries to connect with. 

All of these items have immeasurable worth past only a mere $84,000. Why on Earth would somebody with a working quantum laptop publicly reveal that truth to say a single bitcoin once they may make the most of all these different issues they might be able to doing?

Okay, let’s sweep all of these potentialities apart and fake your entire world magically migrates to post-quantum cryptography other than Bitcoin. It nonetheless is mindless to attempt to publicly declare this prize you probably have a practical quantum laptop. 

Let’s assume you’ve gotten a barely performant sufficient quantum laptop, that it takes an honest period of time to crack a single key. What number of naked public keys are there securing 50 BTC outputs from the primary mining epoch? THOUSANDS of them. Why on Earth would you crack one, after which go inform everybody publicly to say a single bitcoin? You’d simply attempt to crack as a lot of these early coinbase rewards as doable earlier than folks detected you. 

Lastly, the timetable by itself is simply absurd. Quantum computer systems at the moment aren’t even able to factoring prime numbers that folks can do themselves of their heads mentally. In a single yr the expertise goes to leap from that to cracking Bitcoin keys? That’s absurd. 

So what the hell is the purpose of this prize besides some publicity stunt? It’s completely meaningless as a critical bounty to operate as a canary within the coalmine for us, irrespective of how involved or unconcerned you’re with the timeframes of quantum computer systems as a risk. 

This bounty is a joke.

This text is a Take. Opinions expressed are completely the creator’s and don’t essentially mirror these of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Journal.