Late-December Santa Rally Conditions: Spot Demand, Macro Clarity, and a Clean $90K Reclaim

by
Alisa Davidson

Printed: December 22, 2025 at 7:00 am Up to date: December 22, 2025 at 5:51 am

by Ana

Edited and fact-checked:
December 22, 2025 at 7:00 am

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Bitcoin spent the previous week hovering underneath the large psychological ceiling at $90K, and a very powerful element isn’t even the extent itself — it’s how crowded that degree has develop into. Each micro-rally into the excessive $80Ks / $90K zone is met by “promote the rip” positioning, whereas each dip lights up the identical drained query: “Is that this the beginning of the actual unwind or only a reset earlier than the following leg?” That break up is principally the week in a single sentence, and it’s displaying up explicitly in dealer positioning too, with forecasts starting from a fast rebound to 6 figures to a flush again towards $70K “inside days.” 

The macro overlay didn’t assist the bulls. One of many cleaner explanations for why BTC saved stalling is that the market stopped pricing a pleasant Fed path with any confidence, and danger urge for food softened accordingly.

Cointelegraph framed it as rallies being “thwarted” by fading rate-cut odds and softer US macro information — and whether or not you agree with each causal hyperlink or not, the sensible consequence was apparent: much less urgency to chase upside, extra persistence to attend for decrease. For those who’re searching for what the market is buying and selling, it’s not a recent “crypto narrative” this week — it’s liquidity circumstances, and BTC continues to be behaving like a high-beta asset when the room will get even barely nervous.

Now layer on the extra uncomfortable crypto-native learn: onchain and movement watchers spent the week pushing a “demand is shrinking” storyline. CryptoQuant analysts (by way of Cointelegraph syndication) argue that Bitcoin’s obvious demand development has slowed materially since October 2025, with ETF outflows and weakening demand being handled much less like a wobble and extra like the beginning of a bear section. 

You don’t should deal with that as gospel, nevertheless it does clarify the temper: rallies really feel heavy as a result of too many contributors are attempting to promote power and too few are keen to chase breakouts into year-end.

That leads neatly into the “Bitcoin vs gold” mini-drama that ran via the headlines final week. Gold’s power has tempted the traditional rotation commerce (“ditch BTC, purchase the factor that’s really working”), and Cointelegraph ran the counterargument from Matthew Kratter: don’t promote Bitcoin for gold, as a result of BTC’s portability, fastened provide and digital-native properties nonetheless make it the superior long-run wager. 

The extra helpful approach to learn this isn’t as a debate about which asset is morally higher — it’s as a sentiment gauge. When crypto media is significantly entertaining “promote BTC for gold,” you’re not in euphoria; you’re in a market that’s making an attempt to re-justify its danger premium.

The spicier sentiment catalyst was the circulating Fundstrat 2026 outlook. Screenshots attributed to Fundstrat outlined a “significant drawdown” danger into H1 2026, with express draw back targets (BTC $60K–$65K; ETH $1,800–$2,000; SOL $50–$75) — notably contrasting with Tom Lee’s extra bullish public posture. 

Whether or not the doc is totally genuine or not (the reporting frames it as “circulating” and screenshot-driven), the market affect is simple: it offers the cautious crowd a story permission slip to remain defensive. And in skinny vacation liquidity, “permission slips” matter greater than they need to.

In the meantime, the altcoin dialog quietly matured this week, largely as a result of Arthur Hayes mentioned the loud half out loud: “altcoin season by no means ended — merchants simply missed the winners.” 

That’s a good actuality test for anybody nonetheless ready for a clear 2021-style index-wide melt-up. What we’ve been residing via as an alternative is a fragmented, rotating market the place the “season” is selective: pockets run, management modifications quick, and a variety of cash merely don’t take part. In case your method to alts continues to be “I’ll simply purchase the standard basket and wait,” Hayes’ level is principally a warning label.

Some of the constructive developments of the week didn’t even come from value motion — it got here from stablecoins and funds, which is the place the actual institutional plumbing retains getting put in.

Klarna, the BNPL big, introduced a partnership with Coinbase so as to add USDC-denominated institutional funding into its combine. Importantly, Klarna itself says the initiative continues to be in improvement and separate from client/service provider crypto plans, which reads like a conservative rollout somewhat than a hype cycle. This issues as a result of it’s precisely how stablecoins win in apply: not as a meme, however as balance-sheet and treasury infrastructure that lowers friction for giant entities.

Visa additionally pushed the identical course, increasing USDC settlement functionality for US monetary establishments, with early settlement flows occurring on Solana (Cross River Financial institution and Lead Financial institution have been cited as preliminary contributors, with broader rollout anticipated in 2026). 

Once more, the headline is much less “Solana pump” and extra “stablecoins are turning into an always-on settlement rail.”

And regulators, for as soon as, are shifting in a approach that the market can value. US lawmakers floated a proposal that might exempt small stablecoin funds (as much as $200) from capital beneficial properties recognition, whereas additionally providing deferral remedy for staking/mining rewards — a really “make it workable for regular utilization” fashion change. ​

Individually, the Federal Reserve withdrew earlier steering that constrained how Fed-supervised banks interact with crypto, framing it as outdated as understanding advanced. 

These aren’t instantaneous value catalysts the best way an ETF headline is, however they’re the form of incremental authorized and banking normalization that modifications what 2026 liquidity can appear like.

On the political/regulatory entrance, the market additionally digested information that Senator Cynthia Lummis — one of the outstanding crypto advocates in Congress — gained’t search reelection in 2026 (leaving workplace in 2027). 

That’s not mechanically bearish, nevertheless it does introduce a “who carries the torch subsequent?” uncertainty round US legislative momentum, particularly with main market construction debates queued for 2026.

Lastly, the week had a barely extra philosophical overhang: quantum danger. The sensible takeaway wasn’t “quantum is right here” — it was that even critical Bitcoiners acknowledge migration can be gradual. Reporting referencing Jameson Lopp framed a post-quantum transition as one thing that might take 5–10 years as a result of Bitcoin is a decentralized protocol with actual coordination constraints. 

In market phrases, this type of narrative can weigh on sentiment on the margin exactly as a result of it’s onerous to handicap: not imminent sufficient to commerce, however scary sufficient to characteristic in macro-style bearish takes.

So the place does that go away us heading into the yr’s shut?

Proper now, Bitcoin is caught in a credibility take a look at: it will possibly both reclaim $90K with follow-through (that means actual spot demand and supportive liquidity), or it dangers confirming the bearish learn that demand is fading and the market wants a deeper reset first. If we do get a flush, the essential nuance is that even the bearish calls being tossed round (like a visit towards ~$70K) are sometimes framed as a “cycle reset” somewhat than a terminal thesis — in different phrases, loads of large cash nonetheless sees 2026 as the following actual alternative window, simply probably from decrease ranges and higher construction.

For those who’re making an attempt to summarize the vibe: the market shouldn’t be in capitulation, nevertheless it’s additionally not scared sufficient to pressure a clear backside. It’s in that awkward, illiquid vacation zone the place narratives battle, ranges matter greater than they need to, and the following actual transfer most likely waits for January quantity and macro readability to return.

Alisa, a devoted journalist on the MPost, focuses on cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a eager eye for rising tendencies and applied sciences, she delivers complete protection to tell and have interaction readers within the ever-evolving panorama of digital finance.

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