Bitcoin is holding agency above the $92,000 stage after rebounding from final week’s dip towards $90,000, providing bulls a quick second of reduction. But regardless of this stabilization, market sentiment stays decisively bearish, with many merchants anticipating additional draw back except a transparent shift in momentum emerges. The timing couldn’t be extra essential: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming fee choice has turn out to be the central focus for buyers, and the market is bracing for heightened volatility.
In accordance with a brand new CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s historic habits round fee cuts affords significant context. Through the years, Fed rate of interest cuts have typically aligned with upward actions in BTC, largely as a result of decrease charges weaken the US greenback, stimulate liquidity, and help danger belongings. Nevertheless, the report highlights an essential nuance—the quick response isn’t simple.
In a number of previous situations, Bitcoin rallied forward of fee cuts, solely to point out muted and even unfavourable worth motion as soon as the choice was introduced, indicating that markets had already priced within the transfer.
This dynamic creates a layer of uncertainty heading into the FOMC assembly. Whereas macro circumstances align with long-term bullish traits for Bitcoin, the short-term outlook stays fragile, formed by sentiment, positioning, and the market’s anticipation moderately than the announcement itself.
Historic Patterns Sign Warning Forward of the FOMC
In accordance with the report by GugaOnChain on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s previous reactions to Federal Reserve fee cuts provide a transparent framework for understanding the dangers heading into this week’s FOMC assembly. The historic knowledge paints an image of combined and infrequently counterintuitive habits.
For instance, following the 25 foundation level cuts in September 2025, Bitcoin barely reacted in any respect. In one other occasion, BTC surged to a four-week excessive—solely to drop practically $2,000 shortly after, settling right into a interval of muted stability. These reactions underscore how shortly sentiment can shift as soon as coverage selections are totally priced in.
Volatility has additionally performed a defining position. Each the September and October fee selections triggered transient pre-FOMC rallies, adopted by notable declines as soon as the bulletins have been made. After the September minimize, volatility spiked sharply as merchants unwound leveraged positions, revealing how delicate Bitcoin stays to event-driven positioning.
This results in the recurring “purchase the rumor, promote the information” sample, a dynamic that GugaOnChain warns might repeat. Due to this, monitoring market leverage—together with funding charges and open curiosity—is essential. Equally essential are liquidity flows, resembling change reserves and ETF exercise. Collectively, these indicators assist merchants anticipate short-term worth actions as Bitcoin prepares for an additional probably risky macro occasion.
Testing Restoration however Nonetheless Under Key Pattern Ranges
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals the market trying to stabilize above the $92,000 stage after a pointy multi-week correction from the $120,000 area. The current rebound from the $89,000–$90,000 zone highlights robust demand on the 100-week transferring common (inexperienced line), which is at present performing as a vital dynamic help.
Traditionally, this MA has served as a structural spine for Bitcoin throughout mid-cycle pullbacks, and the newest bounce reinforces its relevance.
Nevertheless, regardless of the restoration, BTC stays firmly beneath the 50-week transferring common (blue line), a stage that beforehand marked bullish continuation phases all through 2024 and early 2025. Till worth reclaims this area—now sitting close to $100,000—the broader market construction leans corrective moderately than impulsively bullish. The decrease highs shaped because the peak additionally recommend that bears nonetheless retain management over the medium-term development.
Quantity habits provides one other layer: though shopping for quantity has picked up modestly, it stays considerably weaker than the aggressive promoting stress seen throughout the November–December decline. This means that patrons are exhibiting curiosity, however conviction has but to return in full pressure.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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