The Black Bull (ANSEM) is up roughly 299% over seven days, buying and selling with $64.9 million in 24-hour quantity and a market cap close to $173 million, per CoinGecko.
That dimension places ANSEM in a class that merchants deal with as a learn on Solana’s broader danger urge for food. Merchants are calling the transfer an indication the trenches are again, and DefiLlama reveals Pump.enjoyable quantity at $5.33 billion in weekly DEX quantity and $18.22 billion over 30 days.
July 4 was the primary day Pump.enjoyable and PumpSwap crossed $1 billion in every day quantity since April 8, and the week of June 29 to July 5 was the primary above $5 billion since late March.
On July 1, Solana’s memecoin manufacturing facility hit its highest every day numbers for token launches and graduations in 80 days, pushed largely by ANSEM. The token has already spawned competing variants, and copycat dilution is normally one of many first indicators {that a} trench cycle is selecting again up.
Phemex’s July 1 word added that Pump.enjoyable had regained roughly 62% of its Solana launchpad income and about 55% of its buying and selling quantity over the prior two weeks.
That pickup is exhibiting up within the wider market too, with Blockworks knowledge placing memecoins at over 20% of Solana’s weekly buying and selling quantity, the primary time since mid-Could.
Galaxy’s analysis from October 2025 confirmed Solana memecoins accounting for as a lot as 50% of weekly quantity within the fourth quarter of 2024, so 20% reads as a restoration properly in need of that previous peak.
Galaxy’s analysis additionally explains that memecoins pull retail customers into wallets, decentralized exchanges, bridges, and token launchpads quicker than extra “critical” crypto merchandise normally handle. They’re quick, social, and permissionless, turning consideration itself right into a tradable asset.
The trenches solely change into an issue when the buying and selling sport turns into quick and uneven sufficient that peculiar customers find yourself supplying exit liquidity for the quickest gamers. That is the stress ANSEM’s rally reopens: the identical mechanics that convey customers in let a small group extract worth from everybody who arrives late.
Velocity cuts each methods
Galaxy’s knowledge reveals that the median memecoin holding time is now round 100 seconds, down from roughly 300 seconds. Snipers and bundlers seize massive parts of a token’s provide in its first moments, then promote it as soon as actual demand emerges.
A 2026 ACM Internet Convention paper, “Resisting Manipulative Bots in Meme Coin Copy Buying and selling,” lays out the mechanism behind that pace in a market the place copy buying and selling has change into a significant entry technique.
The paper discovered sniper bots shopping for inside the first one to 5 blocks of a token’s launch, quicker than any human can react, and traced these bots to the vast majority of the 6,000 memecoin initiatives it studied.
MELT, often known as MemeTrans, covers over 41,000 Solana memecoin launches and over 200 million transactions. It discovered coordinated accounts holding a median of 36.5% of the token provide, obscuring true possession focus, and labeled 84.13% of the launches it studied as excessive danger.
A separate cross-chain research, “A Midsummer Meme’s Dream,” examined 34,988 memecoins and located that among the many highest-return tokens, 82.8% exhibited indicators of synthetic progress, resembling wash buying and selling or liquidity-pool worth inflation, and that greater than 17,000 addresses confirmed realized losses exceeding $9.3 million.
Analysis sourceMarket studiedKey findingWhy it mattersGalaxy Analysis, 2025Solana memecoinsMedian maintain time fell to roughly 100 seconds, down from about 300 secondsShows trench buying and selling has change into quicker and extra PvPACM Internet Convention paper, 20266,000+ memecoin projectsSniper bots purchased inside the first 1–5 blocks and appeared within the majority of initiatives studiedThe sport can start earlier than peculiar merchants can reactMELT / MemeTrans, 202641,000+ Solana launches and 200M+ transactionsCoordinated accounts held a median 36.5% of provide; 84.13% of launches labeled excessive riskOwnership can look extra distributed than it actually isA Midsummer Meme’s Dream, 2025/202634,988 cross-chain memecoins82.8% of high-return tokens confirmed artificial-growth indicators; 17,000+ addresses had realized losses above $9.3MBiggest winners might be essentially the most manipulation-prone
That sample is restricted to the most important winners: manipulation is widespread amongst memecoins that submit the biggest positive aspects.
The bull case has Pump’s every day quantity repeatedly clearing $1 billion and Solana’s memecoin share of weekly quantity pushing towards 30%.
ANSEM-style tokens would wish to proceed producing secondary winners alongside that path, with person progress, launch pace, and a focus feeding into one another, extra intently resembling an early memecoin season.
The bear case has ANSEM’s personal copycat variants siphoning consideration, Pump’s weekly quantity dropping again underneath $3 billion, and memecoin share slipping to fifteen%-18% of Solana’s whole. Alongside that path, ANSEM turns into a one-off cultural second, and merchants drift again towards SOL, majors, and more-liquid alts.
ScenarioWhat confirms itPump.enjoyable volumeSolana memecoin shareMarket readBull case: trenches revive cleanlyANSEM-style tokens create secondary winners with out main blowupsDaily quantity repeatedly clears $1BMoves towards 30percentMemecoins change into a broader user-growth and a focus cycleBase case: selective revivalANSEM stays liquid, however most launches stay short-livedWeekly quantity holds close to $4B–$5BHolds round 20%+Trenches are lively once more, however management stays narrowBear case: one-off cultural flareCopycats dilute consideration and liquidity fragmentsWeekly quantity drops under $3BFalls to fifteen%–18percentTraders rotate again to SOL, majors, and extra liquid altsRisk case: predatory cycle returnsSnipers, bundled wallets, faux quantity, or a significant rug dominate the narrativeVolume might spike first, then fadeVolatileActivity returns, however belief deteriorates
Solana’s trenches have already confirmed they will appeal to customers, quantity, and a focus that many “critical” crypto merchandise battle to generate.
The subsequent half is whether or not the revival can occur with out rebuilding the sniper-heavy, bundle-heavy market that measured success in maintain occasions of seconds, made the final cycle worthwhile for the quickest merchants, and price everybody who confirmed up later.
