Trump Tells Reporters Gas Is ‘Way Down’ — US Pump Prices Say Otherwise – Bitcoin News

U.S. Fuel Costs Are up $1.40 From Final Yr

Trump made the declare throughout a press trade this week when reporters requested about his Center East technique amid pump costs exceeding $4.50 per gallon. He pushed again, telling reporters that gasoline costs had fallen “very considerably” that day and had been “manner down.” Nonetheless, AAA information reveals costs held close to elevated ranges earlier than a 1-cent easing — effectively wanting any substantial decline.

The numbers inform a special story. At Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the nationwide common sat close to $3.05 to $3.20 per gallon. By late 2025 and early 2026, costs had pulled again to a low of round $2.81 in January 2026. Since then, the trajectory has moved in a single path.

March 2026 introduced a month-to-month common of $3.64 per gallon. April climbed to roughly $4.10. By early Could, costs had crossed $4.45 to $4.58, relying on the supply. The newest week alone added about 25 cents to the nationwide common. In comparison with Could 2025, when common averaged $3.14 to $3.26 per gallon, drivers at the moment are paying greater than $1.40 additional on the pump.

The first driver is the continuing U.S.-Iran battle. Army exercise tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions disrupted an estimated 20% of worldwide oil provide flows. Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel, with WTI buying and selling close to $94 to $95. These crude ranges feed straight into retail costs, since oil sometimes accounts for 50 to 60% of what shoppers pay on the pump.

The Power Data Administration has forecast that Brent may peak close to $115 per barrel within the second quarter of 2026 earlier than easing, contingent on battle decision. The Brent-WTI unfold has widened to $5 to $12 per barrel attributable to elevated delivery prices and provide route disruptions.

Trump has provided forward-looking assurances all through the battle. He has advised People that costs will “come crashing down” on a number of events as soon as preventing ends and cited plentiful international oil provides as a buffer. He has additionally referenced post-conflict targets as little as $2 per gallon. These claims are speculative and rely upon how rapidly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions unwind.

Presidents carry restricted affect over short-term retail gasoline costs. Crude markets, refining margins, taxes, and distribution prices decide what shoppers pay. The Trump administration has deployed Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases and Jones Act waivers to alleviate some strain, with blended outcomes.

The 2026 value trajectory echoes the 2022 spike underneath the Biden administration, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped push the nationwide common above $5 per gallon. Wars are likely to put strain on vitality markets. Costs moderated between 2023 and 2025 earlier than the present geopolitical shock reversed that development.

AAA information reveals no week-over-week decline within the interval Trump referenced. Month-over-month, costs rose roughly 40 cents. Yr-over-year, they’re up greater than $1.40. The EIA’s weekly retail gasoline experiences corroborate these figures.

Trump has taken credit score for the decline from Biden-era highs that occurred through the first yr of his second time period. That decline was actual. However the present information doesn’t help a declare that costs dropped this week, considerably or in any other case.

Retail costs are likely to observe crude with a lag of 1 to 4 weeks, and that costs traditionally rise sooner than they fall — a dynamic typically referred to as “rockets and feathers.” If the battle de-escalates and crude pulls again from present ranges, shoppers would probably see reduction inside weeks, not days.